SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru
Correspondence: Max Carlos Ramírez Soto. maxcrs22@gmail.com, c20330@utp.edu.pe
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| Other Authors: | , , , , |
| Format: | article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2023
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284263 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14066/4425 |
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| _version_ | 1870612069219303424 |
|---|---|
| author | Ramírez Soto, Max Carlos |
| author2 | Bogado Machuca, Juan Vicente Stalder Díaz, Diego Herbin Champin, Denisse Mártinez Fernández, María G. Schaerer Serra, Christian Emilio |
| author2_role | author author author author author |
| author_browse | Bogado Machuca, Juan Vicente Champin, Denisse Mártinez Fernández, María G. Ramírez Soto, Max Carlos Schaerer Serra, Christian Emilio Stalder Díaz, Diego Herbin |
| author_facet | Ramírez Soto, Max Carlos Bogado Machuca, Juan Vicente Stalder Díaz, Diego Herbin Champin, Denisse Mártinez Fernández, María G. Schaerer Serra, Christian Emilio |
| author_role | author |
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| bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv | MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
| bitstream.url.fl_str_mv | http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/1/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate.pdf http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/5/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate_Supporting%20information.pdf http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/4/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate.jpg http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/2/license_rdf http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/3/license.txt http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/6/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate.pdf.txt http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/7/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate_Supporting%20information.pdf.txt |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Ramírez Soto, Max Carlos Bogado Machuca, Juan Vicente Stalder Díaz, Diego Herbin Champin, Denisse Mártinez Fernández, María G. Schaerer Serra, Christian Emilio |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-07-12T19:02:38Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-07-12T19:02:38Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2023-04-13 |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 22 páginas |
| dc.identifier.citation.en.fl_str_mv | Ramírez Soto, M. C., Machuca, J. V. B., Stalder, D. H., Champin, D., Mártinez Fernández, M. G., & Schaerer, C. E. (2023). SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate: Understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru. PLOS ONE, 18(4), e0284263. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284263 |
| dc.identifier.doi.es.fl_str_mv | 10.1371/journal. pone.0284263 |
| dc.identifier.essn.es.fl_str_mv | 1932-6203 |
| dc.identifier.other.es.fl_str_mv | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284263 |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14066/4425 |
| dc.language.iso.es.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Public Library of Science |
| dc.rights.*.fl_str_mv | Atribución 4.0 Internacional |
| dc.rights.accessRights.es.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.rights.uri.*.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| dc.subject.classification.es.fl_str_mv | 7. Salud |
| dc.subject.other.es.fl_str_mv | Aedes Bivalvos Brotes de enfermedades Dengue Mosquitos vectores Teorema de Bayes Virus del Dengue Aedes Bivalvia Disease outbreaks Dengue Mosquito vectors Bayes Theorem Dengue Virus |
| dc.title.es.fl_str_mv | SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | Correspondence: Max Carlos Ramírez Soto. maxcrs22@gmail.com, c20330@utp.edu.pe |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | CONACYT_809b69c6cf2aab3875e9a0cf49ee0020 |
| identifier_str_mv | Ramírez Soto, M. C., Machuca, J. V. B., Stalder, D. H., Champin, D., Mártinez Fernández, M. G., & Schaerer, C. E. (2023). SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate: Understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru. PLOS ONE, 18(4), e0284263. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284263 10.1371/journal. pone.0284263 1932-6203 |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | CONACYT |
| network_name_str | Repositorio Institucional CONACYT |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repositorio.conacyt.gov.py:20.500.14066/4425 |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | repositorio.institucional@conacyt.gov.py |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | Repositorio Institucional CONACYT |
| repository_id_str | |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Atribución 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| spelling | 22c7ec72-db6c-4b1e-b9b6-da8999fc7cb16007f39c1ff-8b64-4059-b190-1f0743dc15e86001108600a3ab4a8c-d191-4991-980e-8d84d9f92382600ef2590a7-f153-4879-a608-4bcf50a80a2760010626002024-07-12T19:02:38Z2024-07-12T19:02:38Z2023-04-13Ramírez Soto, M. C., Machuca, J. V. B., Stalder, D. H., Champin, D., Mártinez Fernández, M. G., & Schaerer, C. E. (2023). SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate: Understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru. PLOS ONE, 18(4), e0284263. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284263https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284263http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14066/442510.1371/journal. pone.02842631932-6203Correspondence: Max Carlos Ramírez Soto. maxcrs22@gmail.com, c20330@utp.edu.peIntroduction. Dengue is transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito as a vector, and a recent outbreak was reported in several districts of Lima, Peru. We conducted a modeling study to explain the transmission dynamics of dengue in three of these districts according to the demographics and climatology. Methodology. We used the weekly distribution of dengue cases in the Comas, Lurigancho, and Puente Piedra districts, as well as the temperature data to investigate the transmission dynamics. We used maximum likelihood minimization and the human susceptible-infected-recovered and vector susceptible-infected (SIR-SI) model with a Gaussian function for the infectious rate to consider external non-modeled variables. Results/principal findings. We found that the adjusted SIR-SI model with the Gaussian transmission rate (for modelling the exogenous variables) captured the behavior of the dengue outbreak in the selected districts. The model explained that the transmission behavior had a strong dependence on the weather, cultural, and demographic variables while other variables determined the start of the outbreak. Conclusion/significance. The experimental results showed good agreement with the data and model results when a Bayesian-Gaussian transmission rate was employed. The effect of weather was also observed, and a strong qualitative relationship was obtained between the transmission rate and computed effective reproduction number Rt.Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y TecnologíaPrograma Paraguayo para el Desarrollo de la Ciencia y Tecnología. Programa Nacional de Incentivo a los Investigadores22 páginasengPublic Library of ScienceAtribución 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess© 2023 Ramírez Soto et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.7. SaludAedesBivalvosBrotes de enfermedadesDengueMosquitos vectoresTeorema de BayesVirus del DengueAedesBivalviaDisease outbreaksDengueMosquito vectorsBayes TheoremDengue VirusSIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peruinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion4PLOS ONE18Ramírez Soto, Max CarlosBogado Machuca, Juan VicenteStalder Díaz, Diego HerbinChampin, DenisseMártinez Fernández, María G.Schaerer Serra, Christian EmilioORIGINALSIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate.pdfSIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate.pdfArtículo científicoapplication/pdf3148747http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/1/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate.pdffb62801bfc95147e4c726391df53e926MD51SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate_Supporting information.pdfSIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate_Supporting information.pdfInformación de respaldoapplication/pdf462319http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/5/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate_Supporting%20information.pdfdea6252725d9d48d5f097d57fab6be60MD55THUMBNAILSIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate.jpgSIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate.jpgPortadaimage/jpeg796677http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/4/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate.jpgc13b3e9ec5467dcbac03b08d6827a52dMD54CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8908http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/2/license_rdf0175ea4a2d4caec4bbcc37e300941108MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81698http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/3/license.txt858b22fda432bd774e469302988c1974MD53TEXTSIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate.pdf.txtSIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain52113http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/6/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate.pdf.txt843cd087269a2e6e6d535d4086324b0fMD56SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate_Supporting information.pdf.txtSIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate_Supporting information.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain7517http://repositorio.conacyt.gov.py/bitstream/20.500.14066/4425/7/SIR-SI%20model%20with%20a%20Gaussian%20transmission%20rate_Supporting%20information.pdf.txt8db0b3367799893a9bd698b46a0c6b11MD5720.500.14066/4425oai:repositorio.conacyt.gov.py:20.500.14066/44252026-02-12 19:30:36.49Repositorio Institucional CONACYTrepositorio.institucional@conacyt.gov.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 |
| spellingShingle | SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru Ramírez Soto, Max Carlos 7. Salud Aedes Bivalvos Brotes de enfermedades Dengue Mosquitos vectores Teorema de Bayes Virus del Dengue Aedes Bivalvia Disease outbreaks Dengue Mosquito vectors Bayes Theorem Dengue Virus |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru |
| title_full | SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru |
| title_fullStr | SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru |
| title_full_unstemmed | SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru |
| title_short | SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru |
| title_sort | SIR-SI model with a Gaussian transmission rate : understanding the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Lima, Peru |
| topic | 7. Salud Aedes Bivalvos Brotes de enfermedades Dengue Mosquitos vectores Teorema de Bayes Virus del Dengue Aedes Bivalvia Disease outbreaks Dengue Mosquito vectors Bayes Theorem Dengue Virus |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284263 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14066/4425 |